基于空间依赖性视角的农地流转影响因素分析

农地流转具有深刻的时空演变规律,探讨其空间依赖性对从空间视角优化现有土地政策意义重大。本文构建了农地流转行为的空间依赖性分析框架,将农地流转细分为2类流转契约、6类流转形式和4类交易主体,利用2009—2016年省际面板数据,对各类流转行为展开全局空间自相关检验,并使用空间计量模型探讨其空间依赖性的形成机制及影响因素。研究表明:1)空间依赖关系具有行为间的异质性,从全局层面看,只有书面缔约、转包、出租、转入农户、转入专业合作社及转入其他主体6种行为在地理空间权重下具有显著的空间收敛特征;2)流转行为的空间依赖关系存在时间变异性,书面缔约和转入农户行为的空间自相关性分别从2009年和2011年起逐渐增强,口头缔约和股份合作行为仅在2016年呈现显著的空间依赖性;3)书面缔约行为同时具有外生交互效应和内生交互效应,而转包、出租、转入农户和转入专业合作社行为仅通过外生交互效应相互影响;4)空间杜宾模型结果显示,所选影响因素对不同流转行为的直接效应和溢出效应均不一致。农地政策制定与调整应关注不同流转行为的空间依赖特征及规律,更为精准地制定具有跨区域及省域化特点的农地流转政策。

Influencing factors of farmland circulation from the spatial dependence perspective

Rural farmland circulation has profound evolutionary regularities in terms of time and space. It is of great significance to optimize current farmland policies by exploring the spatial dependence of each transaction behavior. Based on a cross-provincial panel data from 2009 to 2016 and applying the global spatial auto-correlation and spatial dependence models, this paper constructed an analytical framework, focusing on the spatial dependence of behaviors of farmland circulation, and divided farmland circulation behaviors into 2 types of circulation contracts, 6 types of circulation modes, and 4 types of circulation entities. Spatial econometric models have also been adopted to discuss the formation of spatial dependence of each behavior and how they were affected by influencing factors. Results show that: 1) the spatial dependence of different circulation behaviors is heterogeneous. From the global perspective, spatial convergence could only be detected saliently from the following 6 types of behaviors when using the geographic spatial matrix, i.e. Written Contracts, Subcontracting, Renting, Leasing Farmland to Farmers and Leasing Farmland to Professional Cooperatives, while other forms of behaviors show an irregular distribution; 2) the spatial dependence of each circulation behavior is time-variant. Written Contracts and Leasing Farmland to Farmers illustrate increasing degree of spatial dependence after 2009 and 2011 respectively. Transaction behaviors like Oral Contracts and Joint Land Stock Cooperation merely show strong spatial dependence in 2016; 3) Written Contracts show both exogenous and endogenous interaction effects simultaneously, while Subcontracting, Renting, Leasing Farmland to Farmers and Leasing Farmland to Professional Cooperatives only show strong exogenous interaction effects; and 4) regression analysis based on the Spatial Durbin Model shows that selected influencing factors impose direct effects and spillover effects on each circulation behavior inconsistently. The process of policy-making and adjustment of farmland policies demands for more attention towards understanding the spatial dependence characteristics and regularities of different circulation behaviors, with which more targeted farmland policies at the cross-regional or provincial level should be formed.