基于遥感植被指数的西藏那曲地区畜牧业旱灾指数保险产品设计研究

青藏高原是我国重要的畜牧业基地,畜牧业生产长期受到旱灾的影响,在当地开展旱灾指数保险产品设计具有重要意义。以青藏高原中部的那曲地区为例,深入分析了当地畜牧业旱灾的主要特点。该地区春夏两季出现的干旱主要引起牧草长势差、牲畜入冬膘情不足、越冬死亡风险上升的情况。针对该情况,在保险支撑防灾的保险产品设计理念下,拟定了通过旱灾指数保险补偿牧民补饲所需的草料成本的指数产品设计框架。在此框架下,综述了几类主要的可表征草场和畜牧业旱灾的气象指标和遥感植被指数,确立了以遥感植被指数估算草地鲜重,测算相对减产率作为赔付依据的旱灾指数方案。利用那曲地区2001—2014年间的牧草生长季MODIS-NDVI数据,测算了保险赔付的触发标准,厘定了保险费率,并以2003年为例对该指数产品的赔付流程进行了说明。研究结果可为当地开办相关指数保险产品,防范畜牧业旱灾风险,促进边疆民族地区经济社会可持续发展提供科学依据。

The design of livestock drought index insurance based on remote sensing vegetation index in Naqu Prefecture, Tibet

The Tibetan Plateau is one of the most important livestock industry bases in China. Livestock industry in this region has suffered from drought disasters for long history. Designing an index-based drought insurance for local herders is of great significance. Taking Naqu Prefecture, Central Tibetan Plateau as example, this study analyzed the features of drought disasters at local places. Since drought disaster mainly lead to poor summer vegetation and poor livestock body reserve, this paper seeks to design an index-based insurance to provide funds for supplementary feeding to reduce the probability of livestock death in harsh winters. This paper also reviewed literatures related to the major meteorological and remote sensing indices and indicators, which potentially reflect drought impacts on pasture and livestock industry. Based on the MODIS-NDVI data of pasture growing season during 2001-2014 in Naqu Prefecture, this paper calculated the trigger level of grassland fresh weight and the actuarially fair premium rates by using the relative loss rate of grassland yield through predicted grassland fresh weight from remote sensing vegetation index. Result of this research can provide important scientific reference for local practice of livestock index insurance, drought risk management, and socioeconomic sustainability of the study area.