新疆农业现代化与城镇化协调发展关系的实证研究

为丰富和完善新疆农业现代化与城镇化的政策体系,加大农业现代化的进程,同步推进新型城镇化的建设具有重要意义。基于新疆农牧业现代化规划和城镇化规划纲要,构建新疆农业现代化与城镇化的耦合协调评价指标体系,运用改进的熵值法和耦合协调模型,分析新疆农业现代化与城镇化的协调发展关系。结果表明,1995-2013年新疆农业现代化与城镇化的综合评价值整体上均呈上升趋势;耦合度波动幅度不显著,基本徘徊在0.49左右;而耦合协调度由1995年的0.283 2上升至2013年的0.725 4,上升趋势明显。但从耦合协调类型来看,2013年刚步入中度协调阶段,离高度协调和极度协调阶段差距依然较大;且仅有2010年属于城镇化发展滞后型,其余年份均为农业现代化滞后型。研究表明新疆农业现代化水平与城镇化发展水平匹配化程度依然偏低。为进一步促进新疆农业现代化与城镇化协调发展,提出使农业现代化发展有效内洽于新型城镇化进程、给企业创造良好环境、继续完善城乡流通体系等政策启示。

Empirical study on the coordinated development relationship between Xinjiang agricultural modernization and urbanization

In order to provide references for enriching and perfecting the policy system of agricultural modernization and urbanization in Xinjiang, increasing agricultural modernization process and promoting urbanization construction have significant meanings. On the basis of the strategic development plan of Xinjiang agriculture modernization and urbanization and applying the improved entropy method and the coupling coordination model, this paper constructed an evaluation index system of the coupling coordination of agricultural modernization and urbanization to analyze the coordinated development relations between agricultural modernization and urbanization in Xinjiang. Results show that comprehensive evaluation functional value of urbanization and agricultural modernization in Xinjiang generally presented an upward trend from 1995 to 2013. Besides, the fluctuation range of coupling degree was not significant, fluctuating around 0.49. For the coupling coordination degree, it presented an obvious rising trend, changing from 0.283 2 in 1995 to 0.725 4 in 2013. However, in general, the coupling coordination degree of the two systems are still low. It just entered the moderate coordination phase in 2013, and it was moving towards high coordination phase which had a big gap from extreme coordination. This research also finds out that urbanization lagged behind agricultural modernization only in 2010 and agricultural modernization development lagged behind urbanization in the rest of the years. In addition, this research shows that the matching degree of agricultural modernization and urbanization was lower. In order to promote the coupling coordination relations between agricultural modernization and urbanization in Xinjiang furtherly, this paper provides the following suggestions, including integrating agricultural modernization effectively in the new urbanization, creating a good environment for enterprises, and continuing to improve the circulation between urban and rural.