基于DPSIR模型的长沙市低碳经济发展水平变化评价

基于DPSIR模型框架,构建起低碳经济发展评价指标体系,采用专家打分法、熵权法、线性加权法相结合的方法,对长沙市低碳经济发展水平变化进行定量评价,探讨长沙市低碳经济发展的路径。结果表明,长沙市低碳经济发展水平变化过程中,驱动力子系统评价指数呈稳步上升的发展态势,由2000的0.040 6上升到2013年的0.166 5;压力子系统评价指数个别年份有小幅下降,但总体增长趋势明显;状态子系统评价指数持续降低,2013年下降趋势得以遏制;影响子系统评价指数经历先降后升的发展阶段后,2013年再次回落;响应子系统评价指数经前期的波浪式增减后快速稳步提升。2000-2005年系统综合评价指数基本稳定在0.36左右,长沙市经济低碳化经过前期低水平均衡阶段后,系统综合评价指数由2005年的0.380 6持续稳步增长到2013年的0.680 5。研究表明,长沙市低碳经济发展水平尽管实现了等级跨越,但目前尚处于中高碳经济发展的起步阶段,仍有极大的提升空间。因此,优化产业结构和能源消费结构,倡导低碳生产、生活方式,增加碳汇能力,是长沙市低碳经济未来发展方向。

Evaluation on the level variation of low-carbon economy development of Changsha City based on the DPSIR Model

Applying the expert scoring method, entropy weight method, and linear weighting method, this paper built an evaluation index system of the low-carbon economy development under the DPSIR model framework to quantitatively evaluate the low-carbon economy development level in Changsha City, and to explore the optimal paths for the low-carbon economy development in Changsha. Results show that 1) in the low-carbon development process of Changsha City, the evaluation index of driving force subsystem showed a steady upward development trend, increased from 0.040 6 in 2000 to 0.166 5 in 2013; 2) the evaluation index of pressure subsystem declined slightly in some years, but the overall growth trend was obvious; 3) the evaluation index of status subsystem continued to decrease till 2013 and then began to change; 4) the index of impact subsystem fell again in 2013 after experiencing downs then ups; 5) the evaluation index of response subsystem displayed steady and rapid growth after some fluctuations; and 6) the comprehensive system evaluation index was stabilized at around 0.36 from 2000 to 2005, and then continued to grow steadily from 0.380 6 in 2005 to 0.680 5 in 2013 after low-balanced development stage. This research also found that the economy development of Changsha had some breakthroughs, but it still stayed the initial stage of the middle-high-carbon economic development, and has great potential to improve. Therefore, this paper suggests that the future development direction of Changsha low-carbon economy should focus on the optimizing the industrial structure and energy consumption structure, promoting low-carbon production and lifestyle, and increasing the capacity of carbon sinks.