城镇非均衡发展对农业生产效率提升的影响与空间效应分析

区域城镇化发展的空间差异性对农业生产效率的影响效应不容忽视。本文基于长江经济带129座城市2005—2018共14年空间面板数据，运用随机前沿分析方法测算了农业生产效率，并使用面板空间杜宾模型评估了全域和局部视角下城镇社会经济发展对农业生产效率的空间溢出影响。结果表明：1)2005—2018年间，长江经济带各市农业生产效率处于逐年上升状态，但总体水平偏低，效率值空间上极不均衡，高值区主要分布在上海市、武汉市和重庆市周边。2)城乡发展差距是阻碍区域，尤其是上游地区农业生产效率提升的主要因素，而非农经济和交通条件对于推动全域农业生产效率具有重要积极作用。3)上游城市农业生产效率主要受城镇发展的直接效应影响，而中、下游城市农业发展受城镇发展的间接效应影响较大。因此，研究认为积极发展非农产业、改善交通等基础设施条件、促进农业生产要素的流动、缩小城乡发展差距、推动区域均衡发展是提升长江经济带全域农业生产效率的主要政策建议。

The influences and the spatial effects of unbalanced urbanization development on the improvement of agricultural productivity

The spatial difference of regional urbanization development has great impacts on agricultural productivity. Based on a 14-year spatial panel data of 129 cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2005 to 2018, this paper analyzed the agricultural productivity by the Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) method and evaluated the spatial spillover effects of urban social and economic development on agricultural productivity by the spatial panel Durbin model from both global and local perspectives. Results show that: 1) from 2005 to 2018, the agricultural productivity of the cities in the Yangtze River economic belt is increasing year by year, but the overall level is low with huge spatial heterogeneity. The high value area is mainly around Shanghai, Wuhan, and Chongqing; 2) the development gap between urban and rural areas is the main factor hindering the improvement of agricultural productivity in regions, especially in the upper reaches, while non-agricultural economy and traffic conditions play important and positive roles in promoting global agricultural productivity; 3) agricultural productivity in upstream cities are mainly affected by the direct effect of urban development, while the agricultural development of middle and downstream cities is greatly affected by the indirect effect of urban development. Therefore, this study believes that actively developing non-agricultural industries, improving transportation and other infrastructure conditions, promoting the flow of agricultural inputs, narrowing the development gap between urban and rural areas, promoting regional balanced development are the main policy recommendations to improve agricultural productivity in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.