湖北省碳排放研究:总量测算、结构特征及脱钩分析

参考国家温室气体清单指南的方法,从产业、来源、土地承载三个方面分析湖北省2001-2010年碳排放结构,测算其碳排放总量,探讨碳排放的时序特征与经济增长的关系。结果表明,湖北省第二产业碳排放较高,且产出效率低,第三产业单位碳排放效益最高;能源消费碳排放占总量的90%以上,占比远高于IPCC给出的参考值;城镇居民点及工矿用地碳排放占总量的74.98%,碳排放强度为229.92 t/hm2。十年间湖北省碳排放量由3705.66万t增长到7740.47万t,年平均增加9.65%。能源消费增长率高于碳排放增长率,是碳排放增加的主要动力,畜牧业碳排放减少7.78%。湖北省碳排放与经济增长脱钩状态以弱脱钩和扩张连接为主,2009年后出现由弱脱钩向扩张连接的状态转移,近些年经济发展质量有所下降。因此,湖北省应以经济转型升级为契机,提高碳排放利用效率,改进农业生产方式,加强土地用途管制,促进经济绿色增长。

Carbon emissions in Hubei: calculation, structure and decoupling analysis

Following the guidelines of National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, this study calculated the total carbon emissions of Hubei Province from 2001 to 2010 and analyzed the structure of carbon emissions from the aspects of industries, sources and land carrying capacity. In addition, this article examined historical changes of carbon emissions and its relationship with economic growth. The results show that the secondary industry contributed the most to carbon emission however had very low output efficiency. The tertiary industry had a higher carbon emissions efficiency. Furthermore, carbon emission from energy consumption was more than 90%, much higher than the reference value given by IPCC. Urban residential and industrial land, whose carbon intensity is 229.92 t/hm2, resulted in 74.98% of the total carbon emissions. Carbon emission of Hubei Province rose from 3705.66×104 t to 7740.47×104 t in a 10-year time period, with an annual increase rate of 9.65%. The growth rate of energy carbon emissions from energy consumption was higher than the growth rate of total carbon emissions and consequently had been the main driving force. In the same time period, livestock carbon emissions had been reduced by 7.78%. In the result of decoupling analysis, the main decoupling status between carbon emissions and economic growth in Hubei Province are weak decoupling and expansion connection. Moreover, decoupling state transfers from weak decoupled to expanding connection after 2009. This shows that the quality of economic development had decreased in recent years. Therefore, industries in Hubei Province should take the opportunity of economic growth type transformation to improve the utilization efficiency of carbon emissions. The Hubei provincial administration should strengthen the land use control and consequently promote green growth.