良种油茶栽培经济效益分析

采用技术经济分析方法中的动态分析、盈亏平衡分析、单因素敏感性分析等方法,研究了良种油茶Camellia oleifera栽植从第1年开始到第30年为一个经济生产时段的生产成本构成,主要动态经济指标(净现值、内部收益率、投资回收期),设计产量和价格收益率的盈亏平衡点,以及销售收入和生产成本等不确定因素对净现值的影响。结果表明:在30 a的生产时段中,按7%基准贴现率和2010-2012年茶油市场平均价格60.00元·kg-1计算,累计净现值为4.38万元·hm-2,内部收益率为12.05%;投资回收期为16.41 a;当整个生产时段的销售收入减少19.50%或生产成本增加24.20%时,发展良种油茶生产将变得不可接受,但从目前市场和生产实际情况分析,出现这种情况的可能性很小。政府在油茶产业资金扶持政策上,除现有的造林补贴政策外,还可通过扩大小额贷款范围、延迟还贷时间;采用补助政策,加快经济适用的小型农机具(如油茶采果机、山地土壤耕作机等)的开发、推广应用,鼓励油茶加工企业采用先进技术改造现有榨油机械,提高茶油加工效率和效益等方法,促进油茶产业的发展。

Economic benefits analysis of elite cultivars of Camellia oleifera

Technical and economic analysis methods, including dynamic analysis, Break-Even analysis and One-Way Sensitivity analysis, were adopted to study production costs, economic indexes including the cumulative net present value （V_NPV）, internal rate of return （R_IRR） and the payback period of investment （T_P）, break-even point of designed output and price earnings ratio, and influence of sales income and production cost on net present value over a 30-year period of Camellia oleifera. The results indicated that for a 30-year period, the cumulative net present value （V_NPV） was 43 800 yuan·hm^－2, the internal rate of return （R_IRR） was 12.05 per cent, the payback period of investment （T_P） were 16.41 year, according to benchmark discount rate of 7 per cent and the average market price of 60 yuan·kg^－1 from the year of 2010 - 2012. The development of elite cultivars of Camellia oleifera planting was unacceptable if the sales income reduced by 19.50 per cent or the production cost increased by 24.20 per cent. Judging from the current market and production situations, such probability was very small. In order to promote the development of Camellia oleifera industry, in addition to the existing forestry subsidy policies, the government should make financing policies to increase the access to the small-amount loans and delay the time of loans repay and use subsidy policy to accelerate the development and application of economic and suitable small agricultural machinery such as camellia fruit picking machine and mountain soil tillage machine, also encourage camellia oil-refinery to transform existing oil refining machines with advanced technology to improve the processing efficiency and benefits, and promote the development of camellia oil industry. ［Ch, 1 fig. 4 tab. 13 ref.］