香榧栽培经济效益分析

 采用技术经济分析方法，研究了采用2＋2和2＋5苗龄香榧Torreya grandis ‘Merrillii’嫁接苗建园，20 a一个时段的生产成本构成和各项经济指标。结果表明：香榧栽培建园成本高，投资回收期长，一般需要10 a左右，但经济效益良好，其内部收益率达15.00%。香榧15 a以后才开始进入盛果期，盛果期可达100 a以上，所以，从长远看，经济效益十分显著。香榧生产上应采用2＋5以上大苗建园，其盈亏平衡点为31.64%，预期经济效益稳定。在同样的变动率下，销售收入的变动对香榧栽培净现值的影响最大，从现实情况分析，其市场风险、自然风险、技术风险和政策风险等都是很小的。在香榧产业资金扶持政策上，应重点考虑良种大苗培育和采用良种大苗建园，同时可通过扩大小额贷款范围、延迟还贷时间等政策措施，促进香榧产业的发展。图4表3参9

Economic benefits of Torreya grandis ‘Merrillii’ plantings

Technical and economic analysis methods，including dynamic analysis，Break-Even analysis，and One-Way Sensitivity analysis，were adopted to study production costs and economic indexes of Torreya grandis ‘Merrillii’ plantations that used 2+2 and 2+5 grafted seedlings over a 20-year period，in order to scientifically estimate feasibility and support scientific basis for Torreya grandis ‘Merrillii’ planting development. And according to the 7% benchmark discount rate to calculate the main dynamic economic indicators （such as NPV，IRR，TP etc.），design production and price earnings ratio of break-even point，and sales income and cost of production of uncertain factors on the economic production cycle in net present value influence. Results showed high plantation costs with a long period （about 10 years） needed to recoup the investment；however，economic benefits were favorable with an IRR of about 15%. The full fruit-bearing stage started after 15 years and lasted about 100 years，so in the long run economic benefits were excellent. The break-even point for a T. grandis ‘Merrillii’ plantation using 2+5 grafted seedlings was 31.6%，and its expected economic benefit was stable. If sales income fell 61.54% or production costs increased 160% during 20 a，development of Torreya grandis ‘Merrillii’ production would not feasible，but from 2009-2011 Torreya grandis ‘Merrillii’ market and production analysis of the actual situation，the possibility of this happening is minimal. Couclusion：T. grandis ‘Merrillii’ plantation risks due to markets，nature，technique，and policy are low，fund policies should be promoted to encourage breeding of big seedlings for establishing orchards，to enlarge the scope of small-scale loans，and to increase the repayment time on loans so as to promote development of the T. grandis ‘Merrillii’ industry.［Ch，4 fig. 3 tab. 9 ref.］