基于人粮关系的关中-天水区土地资源承载力时空差异研究

以人粮关系为基础,基于GIS空间分析功能,采用土地资源承载力和土地资源承载指数模型,定量分析了"十一五"和"十二五"规划期间,关中-天水区县域尺度土地资源承载力的时空差异性。结果表明,2006—2015年期间,关中-天水区土地资源承载指数的平均值为1.377,土地资源超载率为22%,总体上处于人口超载状态;对比分析2个5年时间段,土地资源承载力提高的区县有19个,占研究区县总数的29%,主要分布在区域的西北和东北部,包括天水市、咸阳市、铜川市和渭南市的部分区县;土地资源承载力降低的区县有46个,占研究区县总数的71%,主要分布在区域的中部和南部,包括宝鸡市、西安市、咸阳市和商洛市的部分区县等。研究为区域土地资源开发、人口布局、粮食安全保障以及可持续发展提供了科学依据,也为区域更好地落实"十三五"规划中的耕地保护、粮食安全等政策提供了参考建议。

Spatial and temporal differences of the land carrying capacity in Guanzhong-Tianshui Region based on the human-grain relationship

In this paper, based on the GIS spatial analysis function and land carrying capacity and the land carrying index models of national unified standard, the spatial and temporal differences of the land carrying capacity in Guanzhong-Tianshui Region at the county scale during the periods of the "11th Five-Year Plan" and the "12th Five-Year Plan" were quantitatively analyzed. The results showed that, during the period of 2006-2015, the average LCCI value of Guanzhong-Tianshui Region was 1.377, and the land resources overload rate was 22%, which generally was at a state of overload population. Compared the two five-year periods, the number of counties with improved land carrying capacity was 19, accounting for 29% of the study area, which mainly distributed in the northwest and northeast of Guanzhong-Tianshui Region, including some counties of Tianshui, Xianyang, Tongchuan and Weinan; the number of counties with decreased land carrying capacity was 46, accounting for 71% of the study area, which mainly distributed in the central and southern part of Guanzhong-Tianshui Region, including some counties of Baoji, Xi''an, Xianyang and Shangluo.