基于STIRPAT模型的长江经济带农业碳排放时空特征及影响因素分析

根据2000-2017年数据,运用STIRPAT模型对长江经济带农业碳排放影响因素进行分析,结果表明：长江经济带农业碳排放总量与农业碳排放强度总体上均呈增长趋势,年均增长率分别为1.49%和1.87%,且各地区农业碳排放总量与碳排放强度差异明显。农业产业结构、农业就业人员、农村居民可支配收入、农业技术水平、城镇化率对区域农业碳排放影响显著。分区域看,东部农村居民可支配收入及城镇化水平推动农业碳减排,中部农业技术水平和人均耕地面积能抑制农业碳排放增长,西部农业就业人员、农村居民可支配收入、城镇化水平造成农业碳排放量增长快。

Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Agricultural Carbon Emission in Yangtze River Economic Belt Based on STIRPAT Model and Its Influence Factors

This paper analyzes, based on the 200-2017 data and through the STIRPAT model, the factors influencing the agricultural carbon emission in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. The results show that the total emission and the emission intensity are both on the rise, with an average annual growth rate of 1.49% and 1.87% respectively, and there are remarkable differences within the region. Moreover, agricultural industrial structure, agricultural employment, rural residents'' disposable income, agricultural technological level and urbanization rate have significant impacts on regional emission. In the eastern region, the rural residents'' disposable income and the urbanization rate promote the reduction of the emission; in the central region, the agricultural technological level and per capita agricultural acreage can restraint the increase of the emission; in the western region, the agricultural employment, rural residents'' disposable income and the urbanization rate cause the rapid increase of the emission.