皖北地区的气温变率研究

采用线性倾向估计、累积距平和突变检测方法,对皖北地区1958～2007年的四季、年气温资料进行综合分析。结果表明,近50 a皖北地区年平均气温呈明显的上升趋势,线性气温倾向率介于0.16～0.34℃/10a;最大增暖发生在冬季、春季;年代际变化趋势为先降后升,20世纪60～80年代,区域年温平均距平值均为负值,为相对冷期,90年代和2000～2007年2个时段的年温平均距平值均为正值,为相对暖期。突变分析结果显示,皖北地区的气温变化存在明显突变现象,突变时间发生在20世纪80年代末到21世纪初。

Analysis of tendency rates of temperature in the North of Anhui Province

Air temperature data in the North of Anhui Province form 1958 to 2007 were analyzed in seasons and years based on Linear Tendency method,Cumulative Anomaly method and Mann-Kendall method.The re-sults showed that the mean annual temperature form 1958 to 2007 increased obviously with the tendency rates of temperature between 0.16-0.34 ℃/10 a;The most evident warming occurred in winter and spring.Decadal trend was down after the first rise.The regional annual average temperature anomalies were negative from 1960s to 1980s,and the average annual temperature anomalies were positive in 1990s and years 2000-2007.Results also showed that there was obvious abrupt change of air temperature in the North of Anhui Province,which was oc-curred form the later 1980s to the early 21st century.