基于粮食安全贡献度的中国粮食主产区粮食供求格局演变

基于粮食安全贡献度的FSP模型分析框架,从省际粮食供需平衡的角度测算中国粮食主产区对国家粮食安全的贡献,并探究了粮食主产区粮食供求格局的演变特征。结果表明:除2000—2003年粮食产量骤降造成粮食供给缺口外,1991—1999年、2004—2018年中国粮食主产区粮食盈余(调出量)呈“稳中有降—绝对增长”的U型变化趋势,历年粮食安全贡献度均高于85%,粮食主产区的粮食地位相对稳固。粮食主产区的粮食供求格局经历了省际间的分化和重组。一方面,粮食供给向中北部地区集聚,而南部地区粮食产需紧平衡,粮食供需错配严重;另一方面,粮食供需空间分异明显,2000年后黑龙江、河南、吉林3省的粮食安全贡献度合计达50%左右,而湖南、江西、江苏、河北、湖北、四川、辽宁7省的历年粮食安全贡献度均低于5%,粮食调出总量合计仅占粮食主产区粮食调出总量的10%~20%。

Evolution of grain supply and demand pattern in major grain-producing areas in China based on contribution rate to food security

Based on the FSP model analysis framework of contribution rate to food security, the contribution rate of 13 main grain-producing provinces (autonomous region) to national food security in China was calculated and analyzed from the perspective of inter-provincial grain supply and demand balance, and the evolution characteristics of grain supply and demand pattern were explored in major grain-producing areas. It was shown that except for the grain supply gap caused by the sharp drop in grain output from 2000 to 2003, the grain surplus (export volume) in major grain-producing areas showed a “U”-shaped trend of “steady decline-absolute growth” from 1991 to 1999 and from 2004 to 2018. Over the years, the contribution rate to food security of the major grain-producing areas was higher than 85%, and the status was relatively stable. The main function of major grain-producing areas in China has undergone inter-provincial differentiation and reorganization. On one hand, grain supply was concentrated in central and northern regions, while the grain production and demand in the southern regions was tightly balanced, which resulted in a serious mismatch between food supply and demand. On the other hand, the spatial difference of grain supply and demand was obvious. Since 2000, the total contribution rate to food security of Heilongjiang, Henan and Jilin has reached about 50%. The contribution of Hunan, Jiangxi, Jiangsu, Hebei, Hubei, Sichuan and Liaoning to grain security over the years was less than 5%, respectively, and the total amount of grain transferred from the later seven provinces only accounted for 10%-20% of the total amount of grain-transferred from the major grain producing-areas.