采用蒙特卡洛法评定转基因玉米DAS-4-40278-9的测量不确定度

不确定度传播律(GUM法)是分析测量领域里常用的测量不确定度评定方法,但该法存在输出量为正态分布假设等诸多局限。为了在转基因成分检测试验中提供一种更优和更适合的测量不确定度评定方法,采用蒙特卡洛法(MCM)评定混合样品中转基因玉米DAS-4-40278-9的测量不确定度。结果表明,转基因玉米DAS-4-40278-9的相对含量平均值为1%,不确定非常小(3.07×10^-4)。在95%的包含概率下,转基因玉米DAS-4-40278-9的相对含量检测值落在较窄的包含区间0.94%~1.06%。结果显示,混合样品中转基因玉米DAS-4-40278-9的相对含量的概率密度分布呈正态分布,与用GUM法关于“输出量概率密度函数为正态分布”的假设一致。由于MCM法可避免传统GUM法的局限性,建议在开展转基因成分测量不确定度评定时可采用MCM法。

Measurement uncertainty in genetically modified maize DAS-4-40278-9 estimated by Monte Carlo method

The GUM method is a commonly used way for evaluating measurement uncertainty (MU) in the field of products detection,whereas the approach has some limitations such as the hypothesis of normal distribution in output quantity. To provide a better and more suitable method for the estimating MU of genetically modified organism (GMO) detection,the Monte Carlo method (MCM) was employed to evaluate the MU of GM corn DAS-4-40278-9 in mixed sample. The results showed that the relative content of the GM corn DAS-4-40278-9 (C) was 1% with a small MU of 3.07×10^-4;the C value fell in a 95% coverage interval of 0.94%-1.06% indicating a high detection quality. In addition,the probability density distribution of the C was presented in a normal distribution,which was consistent with the assumption mentioned above in GUM method. Because MCM can avoid the limitation in traditional GUM method,MCM should be adopted in the evaluation of MU of GMO detection.