中国粮食进口安全综合评价研究——基于超效率DEA模型

在对粮食及粮食进口安全内涵加以界定的基础上,从粮食数量、粮食质量、粮食价格、粮食贸易、国家经济、生态环境6个方面分析中国粮食进口安全的影响因素,基于超效率DEA模型构建中国粮食进口安全评价模型。对1992—2015年中国粮食进口安全状况进行评价,结果表明,1992—2015年中国粮食进口处于安全状态,粮食进口对我国粮食价格安全和生态安全的影响程度较小,对数量安全、质量安全、贸易安全和经济安全的影响程度较大。

Comprehensive evaluation on China's food import security based on super efficiency DEA model

On the basis of defining the connotation of grain and grain import safety, this paper analyzes the influencing factors of China's grain import safety from the aspects of grain quantity, grain quality, grain price, grain trade, national economy and ecological environment. Based on the super-efficiency DEA, this paper evaluates the safety situation of China's grain imports from 1992 to 2015, and tests the significance of the indicators by constructing t statistics to overcome the defect of the super-efficiency DEA model which can not judge whether the indexes are significant. The results show that China's grain import security is in a safe state during the period from 1992 to 2015. Grain imports have little impact on grain price security and ecological security in China, and have a greater impact on quantity safety, quality and safety, trade security and economic security.