福建省粮食生产的耕地利用效应时空分析

根据福建省及其地级市2009—2016年的粮食生产数据,对其粮食生产和耕地利用情况进行时空分析,并采用LMDI模型分解各耕地利用因素对粮食产量的贡献,比较和分析不同耕地利用因素对粮食产量变化的效应,以探究不同区域粮食产量变化的主导因素。结果表明:福建省2009—2016年粮食产量约下降2.4%,其中,粮作比下降8.8%是导致福建省粮食减产的主要因素。2009—2016年,福建省各地级市中仅龙岩和三明2地实现粮食增产。厦门农业劳动力人均耕地面积降幅最大,龙岩和漳州粮食单产增幅明显,泉州农业劳动力数量下降明显,所有地级市的粮作比均有不同程度的下降。结构效应是导致福建省粮食减产的主要因素,影响省内各地级市粮食产量变化的因素则各有不同。

Spatial and temporal analysis into effect of cultivated land use in grain production in Fujian Province

The present study took Fujian Province as the research area, and analyzed the grain production and cultivated land use at both province and city levels. The LMDI model was used to decompose the contribution of cultivated land use factors to grain production, and the spatial and temporal analysis of cultivated land use effect was carried out. The results showed that the grain output in Fujian Province was decreased by about 2.4% in 2009-2016, and the grain farming ratio dropped by 8.8%. The decline of grain farming ratio was the main cause of reduction of grain production. From 2009 to 2016, only Longyan and Sanming achieved grain production growth among the cities in Fujian Province. The per capita arable land area of Xiamen's agricultural labor force experienced the largest decline. The grain yield per hectare in Longyan and Zhangzhou increased. Quanzhou's agricultural labor force fell the most. And the grain farming ratio in all cities in Fujian Province declined. Structure effect was the main reason for the reduction of grain production in Fujian, and the factors affecting the change of grain production in different cities were different.