基于城市建设用地扩张预测的城郊村土地经营权流转最优期限确定

确定城郊村土地经营权流转最优期限有利于流转双方做出符合其最大收益的期限选择,降低流转过程的交易成本。以理性选择理论为指导,构建城郊村土地经营权流转最优期限分析框架,以长沙市为例,运用CA-Markov模型模拟城市建设用地扩张,预测城郊村土地征收时间,并选取长沙市望城区某城郊村进行实证分析。分析认为,城郊村土地经营权流转最优期限是土地征收前流转双方收益均达到最大时对应的期限。土地征收前流转次数不同,其最优期限不同。流转双方可根据收益预期和主观意愿,参考城市建设用地扩张趋势预测土地被征收时间以确定最优流转期限。CA-Markov模型在确定土地经营权流转最优期限方面有一定的优势。

Determination of optimal term of land transfer in suburban villages based on construction land expansion prediction

Determination of the optimal term of land transfer in suburban villages is conducive to the both sides of land transfer in line with their maximum benefits, and could reduce the transaction cost in transfer process. Based on the theory of rational choice, the framework for the determination of the optimal term of land transfer in suburban villages was constructed in the present study. With Changsha as an example, CA-Markov model was used to simulate the expansion of urban construction land. Then, the simulation results were chosen to predict the time of land expropriation, and Wangcheng District of Changsha was selected for empirical analysis. The results showed that the optimal term of land transfer in suburban villages was the corresponding time when the income of both sides of the land transfer reached the maximal revenue before land expropriation. Different transfer times corresponded to different optimal term before land expropriation. Both sides of land transfer could determine the term according to their income expectation, subjective intention, and land expropriation time predicted by the expansion of urban construction land. CA-Markov model exhibited certain advantages in determining the optimal term of land transfer.