空间、经济、技术三维视角的省际农业碳关联研究

研究农业碳排放省际关联可为区域协同减排奠定基础,最终实现农业绿色发展和整体减排的双重目标。根据国家温室气体排放清单指南的基本框架,从农用能源、农地利用、反刍动物饲养、作物种植和农业废弃物5个部门对农业碳排放做了全面测算,利用空间统计法验证中国省际与分部门的碳排放区域关联性,并从关系视角建立非参数QAP回归,从空间关联、经济关联和技术关联三维角度解释了区域农业碳关联的深层次原因。最终从优化能源布局、提升能源利用效率,充分发挥减排技术扩散效应,分区域、分部门制定差异化减排措施,以及建立“四原则、三核心”的区域协同减排机制4个方面提出建议。

Inter-provincial correlation of agricultural carbon emission from perspectives of space,economy and technology

Research on inter-provincial correlation of agricultural carbon emissions could lay foundation for the regional synergies, and benefit the realization of dual goals of green agriculture development and carbon emission reduction. According to the basic framework of the national greenhouse gas emissions inventory guidelines, agricultural carbon emissions were measured comprehensively in five sectors, namely, agricultural energy, farmland use, ruminant feeding, crop planting and agricultural waste. Regional correlation of carbon emissions were verified by spatial statistical analysis, and the possible reasons were explored from the perspectives of spatial adjacency, economic dependence and technological association by nonparametric QAP regression. Finally, countermeasures were proposed including optimizing energy layout, improving energy efficiency; focusing on the diffusion effect of emission reduction technologies; formulating differentiated emission reduction measures by sub-region and sub-sector; establishing “four principles, three cores” regional synergistic emission reduction mechanism.