乡村振兴背景下农业经营组织雇佣的减贫效应

基于乡村振兴视角,使用中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据,采用内生转换Probit(ESP)模型,在反事实框架下分析了农业经营组织雇佣对农户多维相对贫困的处理效应。结果表明:农户的受雇状况(是否接受农业经营组织雇佣)对其多维相对贫困发生概率在1%水平上具有显著负向处理效应。基于反事实假设下,若接受雇佣的农户未被雇佣,其多维相对贫困的发生概率将上升19.4%;若不接受雇佣的农户被农业经营组织雇佣,其多维相对贫困的发生概率将降低6.1%。样本总体的处理效应为-0.096,表明如果农户接受农业经营组织雇佣,其多维贫困的发生概率将降低9.6%。从群组差异性来看,对于那些学历水平较高、家庭农业劳动力比例高、签订劳动合同的农户而言,农业经营组织雇佣的减贫效应更为明显。据此,从产业振兴、人才振兴、组织振兴视角提出激励农业经营组织增加雇佣机会、强化农户农业技能培训、改善利益联结方式等增强农户反贫困能力的对策建议。

Poverty reduction effect of employment by agricultural management organizations under rural revitalization

Based on the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) data and endogenous switching Probit (ESP) model, the inhibitory effect of employment by agricultural management organbizations on farmers’ multi-dimensional relative poverty was analyzed under counterfactual framework from the perspective of rural revitalization. It was shown that the employment status(whether employed or not by agricultural management organizations) had a significant (P<0.01) negative effect on the multi-dimensional relative poverty probability. Under the counterfactual assumption, the probability of multi-dimensional relative poverty would be increased by 19.4% if the employed farmers were not employed by agricultural management organizations. Meanwhile,the probability of multi-dimensional relative poverty would be decreased by 6.1% if the unemployed farmers were employed by agricultural management organizations. The overall treatment effect was -0.096, indicating that if farmers were employed by agricultural management organizitions, the probability of multi-dimensional relative poverty would be decreased by 9.6%.From the perspective of group differences, the poverty reduction effect was higher on those with higher education level, higher proportion of household agricultural labor force, or contract signed. Accordingly, countermeasures were put forward inluding encouraging agricultural management organizations to increase employment opportunities, strengthening farmers’ skills training, improving the way of interest connection.