中国粮食主产区农业高质量发展水平评价与时空演变

为了探索中国农业高质量发展的现实情况,实现乡村振兴和农业农村现代化,基于高质量发展和五大发展理念建立中国粮食主产区农业高质量发展水平评价指标体系。采用熵权TOPSIS法对粮食主产区的农业高质量发展水平进行综合评价,并对其时空演变特征进行探讨。结果表明:我国粮食主产区农业高质量发展水平偏低,呈现波动上升的趋势,江苏长期保持第一的位置;中高水平区数量呈现比较明显的递增趋势,由中国沿海地区扩展到中部地区的湖北、湖南和江西等地;粮食主产区农业高质量发展水平正向集聚趋势不断增强;大部分粮食主产区相互之间联系较弱,呈现孤立发展的态势;农业高质量发展热点区域呈现萎缩然后又扩展的态势,热点区由北向南、由东部沿海向中部地区演变且不断增强。建议调整农业产业结构,加大农业技术投入,促进农业区域合作,实现农业绿色发展,以提升中国农业高质量发展水平。

Evaluation of high-quality agricultural development level in major grain producing areas in China and its spatial and temporal evolution

In order to explore the reality of China’s high-quality agricultural development, and realize rural revitalization, agriculture and rural modernization, an evaluartion index system for the development level of high-quality agriculture in China’s major grain-producing areas was established based on the concept of high-quality development and five development concepts. The entropy weight TOPSIS method was used to comprehensively evaluate the agricultural high-quality development level in major grain-producing areas. After that the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics were discussed. The results showed that the level of high-quality agricultural development in main grain-producing areas in China was low and the trend of fluctuation was rising. Meanwhile, Jiangsu had maintained its first position for a long time. The number of medium-high level areas in China’s main grain-producing areas showed an obvious increasing trend. The medium-high level areas expanded from China’s coastal areas to the central region, such as Hubei, Hunan and Jiangxi. The positive agglomeration trend of high-quality agricultural development in major grain-producing areas had continued to increase. Most of the main grain-producing areas had weak connection with each other, showing a trend of isolated development. Hot spots for high-quality agricultural development were shrinking and then expanding. Hot spots had evolved and strengthened from north to south, from the eastern coastal region to the central region. Therefore, it was necessary to adjust the structure of agricultural industry, increase input in agricultural technology, promote regional cooperation in agriculture, and realize green development of agriculture in order to improve the level of high-quality agricultural development in China.