中美原油消费影响因素比较实证分析

以中美原油消费量为因变量,以原油价格、已探明的原油储量、原油净进口量、GDP等为自变量分别进行线性回归,得出中美原油消费模型。结论表明：GDP不是影响美国而是影响中国原油消费的显著变量,原油净进口量及原油当年价格均是影响中美原油消费的显著变量,但影响大小差异显著,并对此提出了采用套期保值、保障原油运输通道等建议。

Empirical analysis of influencing factors of Sino-US crude oil consumption in comparison

Taking consumption quantity of Sino-US crude oil as the dependent variable,crude oil prices,proven oil reserves,crude oil net imports,GDP and other variables as independent variables separately for the linear regression derived in Sino-US oil consump-tion model.Conclusions indicate that： GDP is not a significant influencing variable in U.S.A.model,but such is in China＇s.The variables of net import of crude oil and current prices are significant variables affecting Sino-US oil consumption,but the effect size is significantly different.Such proposals are put forward as hedging and protection of oil transport routes and so on.