两岸农产品市场整合程度分析

运用相关性分析法考察海峡两岸的凤梨、芒果、冰冻大黄鱼和猪肉市场价格之间是否存在相关性;运用协整分析法考察以上农产品价格间的整合关系,以分析两岸农产品市场价格之间是否存在长期整合关系;运用格兰杰因果检验法对两岸凤梨和芒果的价格时间序列进行了检验,考察两岸农产品市场价格变化的因果关系.分析结果表明：两岸凤梨和芒果的市场价格存在较高的相关性,并存在长期协整关系,大陆凤梨价格会影响台湾凤梨价格,两岸芒果价格会相互影响;两岸开放程度较低的冰冻大黄鱼和猪肉市场之间的整合程度较低.据此提出进一步提升两岸农产品市场整合程度的措施建议：（1）降低关税壁垒;（2）减少非关税壁垒;（3）提高贸易便利化程度.

A study on the integration of the mainland and Taiwan agro-products markets

Correlativity analysis is applied to investigate the correlation in prices of pineapple, mango, frozen yellow croaker and pork between two sides of the Straits. Co-integration analysis is applied to analyze those four agro-produets to investigate the long- termed integrating relations in the prices of agro-products in markets between two sides of the Straits. Granger causality test method is applied to test the time series of pineapple and mango prices on two sides of the Straits, to investigate the causality of agro-prod- ucts prices dynamics in the markets between two sides of the Straits. The results show as follows. There is a high correlation and long-termed co-integration relationship in the pineapple and mango prices between mainland and Taiwan, and pineapple price in ma- inland affects that in Taiwan, and there is a mutual impact in mango prices between two sides of the Straits. Because of the low open degree to the opposite market, there is a low integration in the markets of frozen yellow croaker and pork between two sides of the Straits. Accordingly the suggestions are proposed to further enhance the integration of agro-products markets between two sides of the Straits. （ 1 ） The lowering of tariff barriers. （2） Reduce tariff barriers. （3） To improve trade facilitation.