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| 我国水产品价格波动的周期性研究 | |
| 引用本文： | 唐果,郭永军,王瑞梅,张小栓.我国水产品价格波动的周期性研究[J].天津农学院学报,2003,10(4):13-16. |
| 作者姓名： | 唐果 郭永军 王瑞梅 张小栓 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 湘潭师范学院,数学系,湖南,湘潭,411201 2. 天津农学院,天津,300384 3. 中国农业大学,北京,100094 |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目"农业结构良性调整与产业化经营"(70133001),湖南省教育厅资助项目"影响湖南省农业信息化进程的因素研究"(03C540) |
| 摘 要： | 采用变异率指标与谐波分析法研究了1978—2000年水产品年度收购价格波动的周期性。研究结果表明,改革开放以来,我国水产品价格波动可以划分为3个完整周期和1个不完整周期,平均周期长度为7a,属于朱格拉周期。目前,水产品价格处于一个新的周期。可以初步推定,该周期在2003年左右达到峰值。 |
| 关 键 词： | 水产品 价格波动周期 变异率 谐波分析法 |
| 文章编号： | 1008-5394(2003)04-0013-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2003年9月28日 |
Analysis of Fluctuation Cycle on Aquatic Products Price in China |
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| TANG Guo,GUO Yong-jun,WANG Rui-mei,ZHANG Xiao-shuan.Analysis of Fluctuation Cycle on Aquatic Products Price in China[J].Journal of Tianjin Agricultural College,2003,10(4):13-16. | |
| Authors: | TANG Guo GUO Yong-jun WANG Rui-mei ZHANG Xiao-shuan |
| Institution: | TANG Guo~1,GUO Yong-jun~2,WANG Rui-mei~3,ZHANG Xiao-shuan~3 |
| Abstract: | The fluctuation circle of aquatic products price between 1978 and 2000 via ratio of variation and harmonic wave was researched. It shows that aquatic products price fluctuation can be divided into 4 cycles, 3 of them are finished and one is unfinished. Its average cycle is 7 years and belongs to Juglar cycle. At present, the cycle of aquatic products price is beginning and up, which will be in peak in 2003. |
| Keywords: | aquatic products price fluctuation circle ratio of variation harmonic wave |
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