作物单产预测方法研究进展

产量预测一直是各国普遍关心的课题，经过多年研究，现在已经形成农学预测方法、统计预测方法、经济学预测方法、气象预测方法、遥感预测方法等多种预测方法。本文综合分析了各种方法的出发点及原理，讨论了各种方法的优势和局限性，结合各方法的特点，认为在探索作物产量形成机制的基础上，以遥感作为主要信息获取手段，辅以气象信息和农学信息等其他参量，建立准确反映产量形成规律的综合估产模型，进行产量预测已成为大面积估产的发展方向。

Overview of technique used by crop yield forecasting

The technique of crop yield forecasting has made a great progress by a long time investigation.Nowadays there are many methods for crop yield forecasting,such as agricultural method,statistical method,economic method,meteorological method,remote sensing method,etc.By analyzing the springboard and principium of every method,we expound the advantage and disadvantage of each mean,and put forward that the forecasting model based on production forming mechanism,mainly depending on information of remote sensing and also using other data such as meteorological and agricultural data,which can reflect the disciplinarian of yield forming,will be the trend of crop yield forecasting at large scale.