南疆环塔里木盆地林果种植区近50a气候变化特征及对果树生长的影响

根据南疆环塔里木盆地林果种植区1961-2010年以来资料完整的32个气象站点的气象资料,利用线性趋势函数分析了该地区近50年的光、温、水等主要气象要素的变化。结果表明:南疆环塔里木盆地林果种植区对全球气候变化的响应显著,年平均气温呈明显的上升趋势,冬季升温尤为显著;年平均降水量以5.873mm/10a的速度上升,增加最快的是夏季,其次是秋季,冬季最少;光照条件和湿度条件变化不明显。南疆环塔里木盆地年平均气温上升趋势对林果这一喜温作物整体有利,暖冬气候整体有利于果树的越冬;夏季降水量增加显著,可利用水资源略有增加,有利于果树的生长发育。但气候变暖同时导致极端气候事件频发,果树发生冻害风险增大。暖冬气候条件使越冬病虫卵蛹死亡率降低,病虫群数量上升,不利于果树病虫害防治。

Climate Change Characteristics and Impacts on Fruit Tree Growth in Tarim Basin Rim Area of Southern Xinjiang in Recent 50 Years

According to the data of 32 meteorological stations in Tarim Basin Rim Area of Southern Xinjiang in 1961-2010, and using linear trend function, this paper analyzed the changes of main meteorological elements such as light, temperature, water in this region in recent 50 years. The results show that： the loop response to global climate change in fruit planting area of Tarim Basin Rim Area of Southern Xinjiang was significant with a clear upward trend of annual average temperature especially for winter temperature; annual average precipitation raised up in the speed of 5.873mm/10a, and the fastest growing was in summer, followed by autumn, and lowest in winter;, changes in illumination and humidity condition was not obvious. The rise of annual average temperature was in favor of fruit in this area, warm winter climate was conducive to fruit trees; significantly increased summer precipitation added available water resources, which promoted the growth of fruit trees. But warming climate also lead to frequent extreme weather events, and increased the occurrence of fruit injury risk, and warm winter climate condition also reduced pupal mortality and increased pest population, which adversed to fruit pest control.