森林可燃物含水率气象预测模型 在森林火险预报中的应用

森林可燃物含水率是森林火险预报中的主要指标之一.利用黑龙江省伊春林区5个气象站1961-2005年逐日气象资料、森林火灾次数资料和五营林业气象试验站1991-2005年森林可燃物含水率观测资料,采用统计回归法,建立森林可燃物含水率与气象要素关系模型,并将可燃物含水率预测模型引入到森林火险气象指数模型中.结果表明:森林可燃物含水率模型模拟效果较好,引入森林可燃物含水率气象预测模型可提高森林火险气象指数模型的应用效果,并划分了森林火险气象指数在伊春林区森林火险等级预报中的应用指标值.森林可燃物含水率模型可祢补可燃物含水率纽份缺少观测资料的不足.促进森林火险等级预报的应用水平.

Application of Forecast Model between Forest Fuel Moisture and Meteorological Factors for Forest Fire Danger Forecast

The forest fuel moisture is one of the main indexes for the forest fire danger forecast. Based on daily meteorological data, forest fire danger frequency data and forest fuel moisture data, meteorological data were derived from 5 meteorological stations of Yichun forest zone in Heilongjiang Province from 1961 to 2005, Forest fire danger frequency data were derived from Yichun forest zone forestry fireproofing headquarters from 1961 to 2005, forest fuel moisture data were derived from Wuying forestry meteorological trial station in Heilongjiang Province from 1991 to 2005, with statistical regress method, the forecast model was built between forest fuel moisture and meteorological factors, the simulated values of the model could be used by the model of forest fire danger weather index. The results show that the simulated effect of the forest fuel moisture model was better, the application effects of the forest fire danger weather index model were improved by the forecast model of forest fuel moisture, the values of forest fire danger weather index were compartmentalized into forest fire danger grade application index in Yichun forest zone of Heilongjiang Province. The forest fuel moisture model may take the place of shortage for the observed data, and accelerate the application level for the forest fire danger grade forecast.