唐山市粮食生产态势及影响因素分析

唐山市是我国京津地区具有战略意义的商品粮基地,对唐山粮食生产的研究对确保我国京津唐地区粮食安全有重要意义。利用唐山市粮食生产投入产出数据,应用灰色关联度,对影响唐山市粮食总产因素和生产函数对单产的投入因素分别进行分析和模拟。结果表明:影响唐山市粮食产量相关因子的关联度顺序为有效灌溉面积>粮食单产>耕地面积>粮食作物播种面积>农业机械总动力>受灾面积>化肥施用量>机耕面积>农村用电量>劳动力数量;农业机械总动力、有效灌溉面积和用电量对粮食单产有显著的正影响,目前的施肥水平下,氮肥对粮食单产有显著的负影响,磷肥和钾肥则为正影响。

Analysis of Development Situation and Influencing Factors of Grain Yield in Tangshan City

Tangshan city is a strategic commodity grain base in Beijing-Tianjin region.The research of Tangshan grain production has an important significance to ensure that the food safety in Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan region.Based on the statistic data of Tangshan City,using grey correlativity analysis method,the impact of grain production factors in Tangshan City and the input factors of production function yields were analyzed.The results showed that the correlation order of grain production factors in Tangshan City was effective irrigation area>production of per land area>arable land area>grain planting area>agricultural machinery gross power>disastrous area>the amount of chemical fertilizer>machine furrow area>rural electricity consumption>agricultural labor force population.Agricultural machinery gross power,effective irrigation area and rural electricity consumption had a significant positive correlation with grain yield per land area.There was a significant negative correlation between nitrogen fertilizer and grain yield per land area,and a positive correlation between phosphorus,potassium fertilizer and grain yield per land area.