河北省能源消费与碳排放影响因素分析

选取1980~2011年的样本数据,应用IPCC碳排放计算方法对河北省能源消费碳排放及经济发展进行阶段分析,同时利用LMDI模型对碳排放增量进行影响因素分解,分析人口、经济产出、产业结构、能源强度、能源消费结构对碳排放的作用程度。结果表明:1980~2011年河北省碳排放经历了稳定增长(1980~1996年)、低速增长(1996~2000年)和快速增长(2000~2011年)3个阶段,且3个阶段的GDP增速明显大于碳排放增速,河北经济发展与能源碳排放整体处于弱脱钩状态,与实现强脱钩还有一定的差距。LMDI模型分解结果显示,碳排放的驱动因素是人口、经济产出和产业结构,贡献度分别为8.92%、292.39%和14.95%;抑制因素是能源强度和能源结构,贡献度分别为-202.94%和-14.35%。

Analysis of Energy Consumption and Influence Factors of Carbon Emissions in Hebei Province

Based on calculation method of IPCC emissions, using the sample data from 1980 to 2011, carbon emissions from energy consumption and economic development in Hebei Province have been made stage analysis,at the same time,using the LMDI model of carbon emissions for the impact factor decom-position,and effect of degree of population,economic output,industrial structure,energy intensity,struc-ture of energy consumption on carbon emissions have been studied. The results showed that carbon emis-sions in Hebei Province experienced steady growth ( 1980-1996) , low growth ( 1996 -2000) , fast growth (2000 -2011) from 1980 to 2011,and three stages of GDP growth rate was significantly higher than the growth rate of carbon emissions. Economic development and energy carbon emissions in Hebei Province was weak decoupling which were gaps and strong decoupling. LMDI decomposition of the model showed that the driving factors of carbon emission in the population,economic output and industrial structure,the degree of contribution of respectively 8.92%,292.39%,14.95%,inhibitory factor was the energy intensity and energy structure,degree of contribution were respectively -202.94% and -14.35%.