河北省小麦产量灰色理论分析与预测

为了解河北省小麦产量变化的规律,明确今后育种工作的目标和前景,利用灰色系统理论GM（1,1）模型,依据1976-2005年河北省审定的玉米品种的区域试验产量,建立预测模型为：X（（k1）＋1）=324818.583945 e^0.018524-318652.083945。并在生产因素保持相对稳定的条件下,据此模型对河北省小麦生产进行规划性预测,为生产的规划与决策提供科学信息。明确小麦育种要重视资源高效利用,达到节省资源,保护环境和持续发展的目的。

Analysis and Forecast of Wheat Yield of Hebei Province with Grey System

For knowing ordinary change regular of wheat yield of Hebei Province and making clear aim and prospect of breeding in the future, on the basis of the model of GM （ 1, 1 ） of grey system through analysis regional experiment yield of wheat varieties which were approved by Hebei variety committee, a predictable model of wheat yield X（（k1）＋1）=324 818. 583 945e^ 0 018524-318 652. 083 945 ） was formulated. In the conditions of relative stability of all its relevant elements, a model for wheat production of Hebei Province was forecasted to provide scientific information for production planning and decision making. The research in wheat breeding which should make the resources be used effectively in order to receive the goal which saved the resources and protected the environment and developed continually.