非农经济发展对农民增收、贫困减少的效应研究——基于1985-2009年的时序数据分析

近年来农村非农经济发展迅速,对农民收入增长和就业都做出了重要贡献。政策制定者也将农村非农经济发展作为农村贫困人口脱贫的潜在路径而寄予较高的期望。我们利用基于扩展的3变量LA-VAR模型,考察了1985-2009年我国农民非农就业与农民收入增长的因果关系,实证结果显示,在此期间,农民的非农就业对农民收入增长有巨大促进作用,是农民收入增长的根本原因。这表明在今后,农民收入增长以及农村脱贫依赖于非农经济的发展,然而,亲贫困式的非农经济增长并不会自动发生,需要政府投资于农村基础设施以及农村教育,改善贫困人口的人力资本存量以及加快城乡劳动力市场的融合。

Effect on Rural Income Growth and on Poverty Reduction of Non-farm Economy Development

In recent years,The rural non-farm economy develop rapidly and has some important implication for rural income growth and employment.Policy makers have high expectations for the rural non-farm economy.The paper,based on Lag-Augmented VAR Model,explores the causality relationship between rural non-farm employment and rural income growth during 1985-2009 periods.The empirical result shows that the non-farm economy growth has play an important role for rural income growth and poverty reduction.However,pro-poor rural non-farm growth does not occur automatically.The government must invest in rural infrastructure and rural education,speeding up the integration of urban and rural labor markets.