多因子问诊1998年和2016年松花江流域夏季降水

为了分析强El nino 衰减年（1998 年和2016 年）松花江流域夏季降水异常成因，提高松花江流域夏季降水预测能力。采用松花江流域97 站逐日降水资料，NCEP/NCAR再分析资料等资料，通过合成分析、相关分析等多种物理诊断方法分析1998 年和2016 年夏季降水异常成因。结果表明：仅仅依靠强El nino 事件的结束时间和强度还不能确定松花江流域夏季降水变化，还需要考虑中高纬环流及其大气内部的自身演变过程，例如东北冷涡的强度和发生时间，欧亚中高纬环流阻高的变化。需要综合考虑海温、副热带系统和中高纬环流系统的异常变化给松花江流域夏季降水带来的影响，从多因子角度诊断和预测松花江流域夏季降水，从而提升预测水平，为气象防灾减灾和农业生产服务提供决策依据。

Multiple Factors Inquiry Summer Precipitation over the Songhua River Basin in 1998 and 2016

The study aims to analyze the abnormal cause of summer precipitation over the Songhua River Basin in 1998 and 2016 which were all strong El nino attenuation year, and improve the prediction ability of summer precipitation over the Songhua River Basin. Based on the daily precipitation data of 97 stations over the Songhua River Basin and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, the authors analyzed the abnormal cause of summer precipitation over the Songhua River Basin in 1998 and 2016 by a variety of physical diagnosis methods such as synthetic analysis, correlation analysis, etc. The results showed that: only the end time and intensity of the strong El nino event could not determine the summer precipitation change, the mid-high latitude circulation and its evolution in the atmosphere should also be considered, such as the intensity and occurred time of the northeast cold vortex and the variation of blocking high in Eurasian circulation. Taking into account the impact of SST and subtropical system, as well as the effect of abnormal variations of the mid-high latitude circulation on the summer precipitation, to diagnose and predict the summer precipitation over the Songhua River Basin from multiple factors could improve the forecast level, thereby, to serve the meteorological disaster prevention and reduction and agricultural production.