湖北中稻抽穗开花期高温热害风险分析及区划

为探究湖北中稻抽穗开花期高温热害发生风险变化特征,基于湖北18个农业气象站中稻生育期观测资料和1960—2019年气象资料以及2016—2017年荆州大田高温控制试验资料,采用数理统计、相关分析等方法,从产量致灾角度探究中稻花期高温热害指标,分析中稻高温热害年际变化、空间分布特征并对其风险进行区划,结果表明：（1）≥35℃高温危害积温与关键产量构成因素（结实率）的（负）相关性较高温日数更好。（2）1960—2019年湖北中稻花期高温热害强度呈先降后升的年代变化,尤其自21世纪初以来,高温热害呈现频率增高、强度加大、范围更广的特点,在空间上以鄂东地区的强度、频率增幅最大,其次是江汉平原和鄂西南,鄂西北增幅较小。（3）高风险区为鄂西北部、长江三峡河谷以及鄂东一带,低风险区为鄂西南中高山及江汉平原大部地区,其余为中风险区,1990—2019年较1960—1989年高温热害风险明显增强。

Risk Analysis and Regionalization of Heat Damage During Heading and Flowering Stage of Mid-season Rice in Hubei Province

To explore the risk variation of heat damage during heading and flowering stage of mid-season rice in Hubei Province, mathematical statistics and correlation analysis methods were used to analyze the response of mid-season rice to heat damage indicators, the interannual variation and spatial distribution of mid-season rice heat damage and the risk regionalization from the perspective of yield components based on data of annual growth period of mid-season rice from 18 agrometeorological observation stations in Hubei, the meteorological data of the province from 1960 to 2019, and the data of field high temperature control experiment in Jingzhou from 2016 to 2017. The results showed that: (1) the negative correlation between ≥35℃ accumulated temperature of heat damage and key yield components (seed setting rate) was a better indicator than the high temperature days; (2) from 1960 to 2019, the intensity of heat damage during heading and flowering stage of mid-season rice in Hubei showed a chronological change of first decrease then increase, especially since the beginning of the 21st century, the heat damage had increased frequency, strengthened intensity, and wider range; spatially, the increase of intensity and frequency was the largest in eastern Hubei, followed by Jianghan Plain and southwest Hubei, and the increase was small in northwest Hubei; (3) the high-risk areas were northwest Hubei, the Three Gorges Valley of the Yangtze River, and east Hubei; the low-risk areas were the middle and high mountains in southwest Hubei and most of the Jianghan Plain; the rest were medium-risk areas. The heat damage risk from 1990 to 2019 was higher than that from 1960 to 1989, intensified significantly.