耕地赤字6000万公顷——中国的粮食危机及应对

保障粮食安全是中国农业的头等要务。多年来,政府有关部门及农业专家一再宣称,中国成功地实现了粮食自给,守住了"粮食自给率不低于95%"这条底线。然而,就在连续8年丰收之际,粮食及食品价格却持续大幅上涨。这种矛盾现象表明,粮食安全领域一定存在某种深层次问题有待去探索。为了揭示中国粮食安全的真相,通过对多年粮食生产及消费的大量数据进行分析、对比后发现:2010年粮食自给率还不到65%,进口的粮油食品要用5948万hm2耕地才能生产出来。"耕地赤字"超过"三北"地区13省(区、市)耕地总和。研究表明:(1)粮食安全的底线已经失守,粮食危机业已显现,形势严峻,绝不可掉以轻心;(2)根据对粮食形势新的判断,政府部门应重新制定(或修改)粮食安全规划、方针和政策;(3)应对粮食危机,除经常提到的那些措施(如保护耕地、兴修水利、科技兴农等)外,严格控制人口和发展节粮型畜牧业是最根本、最具战略意义的措施。

Cultivated land deficit 60 million hm2——China’s food crisis and Counter-measures

It was the most important task for Sino-agricuhure to ensure food security. All of governmental departments and agro-specialists have been repeatedly declaring that China has been keeping sufficient in food, keeping the redline of ＂self-supply rate no less than 95%＂. But why the price of food has been raising by a big margin while we have reaped a rich grain crop for 8 years. It meaned that China＇ s food security must have some concealed problem to seek. According to our research by a vast amount of data on production and consumption of food, we discoved that the food self-supply rate in 2010 was even less than 65% and all imported grain and cooking oil needs 59.48 million hm2 crop-land to produce, exceeding all the cultivated-land in 13 Provinces of ＂Three-North＂ area. Therefore we reached a conclusion： （1） The redline of food security has fallen long ago, the food crisis has come; （2） According to the new judgment on food security, governmental departments should rework out new program, policy and measures. （3） Among those measures to meet food crisis, population controlling and practicing ＂grain-saving animal production＂ were of strategically significance, should be given first priority.