基于GIS的德阳市暴雨洪涝灾害风险定量化研究

伴随自然灾害频发、极端气候的不断涌现,暴雨灾害风险评估的研究具有重要的现实意义。基于GIS技术,对德阳市暴雨洪涝灾害风险进行了调查和统计分析,并做了定量化研究。采用AHP层次分析法和专家评议法相结合,通过建立德阳市暴雨洪涝灾害风险评估体系,体系包含致灾因子危险性、承灾体暴露性、孕灾环境敏感性和防灾减灾能力4项指标,以保证评估的合理性。结果表明,将德阳市划分为低、较低、中等、较高、高5类风险区域,并就较高和高风险区域存在的潜在灾害易发情况进行分析讨论。针对地形复杂、人口虽稀少地区和人口密度大、经济较为发达地区2类,在暴雨洪涝灾害时提出不同对策建议,帮助有效规避暴雨洪涝灾害可能产生的损失和人员伤亡。

Quantitative Research on Rainstorm & Flood Disaster in Deyang Based on GIS

With frequent natural disaster occurrences and extreme climate change, the research on comprehensive risk assessment of storm disaster is significant. Based on GIS technology, the authors statistically analyzed the risk of rainstorm & flood disaster in Deyang, and made a quantitative research. The AHP method and Delphi method were combined to establish a system of rainstorm and flood disaster risk assessment in Deyang. The system included 4 indexes, hazard of disaster inducing factors, exposing of hazard affected bodies, sensitivity of hazard inducing environment and capability of disaster prevention, in order to ensure the rationality. According to the results, Deyang could be classified into five levels of risk regions: negligible risk, low risk, medium risk, high risk and very high risk. The authors discussed the prevention of rainstorm disaster in high risk and very high risk regions, and provided countermeasures to reduce the probability of loss and casualty.