农业生态系统安全性预警与预警系统的建立

分析农业生态系统面临的威胁，提出农业生态系统进行安全性预警必要性，探讨了预警指标、模型和预警类型的选择和及农业生态预警系统建立等研究状况。预警指标的选择主要考虑受人类直接或间接影响后而容易发生退化的因子,主要有土壤肥力质量指标和土壤环境质量指标等; 模型在生态安全预警研究中具有预测、解释和推断功能，在不同预警指标中将会采用不同的模型；预警的类型包括对农业生态系统恶化的程度和状态，趋势，速度等预警；WebGIS技术的运用为建立包括不同尺度和时间的预警，单项因子预警信息、子系统预警信息和系统总体预警提供了有力的技术支撑。

Review on Early-warning of Agroecosystem Security and Building of Early-warning System

This paper analyzed the problems in agro-ecosystem and necessity for necessary on the early-warning of agro-ecosystem security. The choice of indices, models and kinds of early-warning and the building of agro-ecology system were reviewed. The indices of early-warning were selected from the factors that are sensitive to mankind influence directly or indirectly. The indices about soil fertility and soil environment are generally included. The models have the function of predication, interpretation and deduction on the research about early-warning of ecology security. Various models are applied in different indices. The kinds of early-warning vary from the degree , state, trend and velocity of deterioration in agro-ecology. The application of WebGIS supplies power technical support for various early-warning, such as early-warning about different scale and time, single item, sub-system and total system.