1958—2018年广西早稻高温热害时空变化规律

为了掌握广西水稻高温热害的变化规律特征,为水稻生产制定防灾减灾对策提供决策依据,本研究利用广西89个气象观测站1958—2018年观测资料及地理信息数据,采用GIS技术、M-K突变分析和Morlet小波周期分析等方法,探究广西早稻高温热害发生的时间变化规律和空间分布等特征。结果表明：（1）1958—2018年广西早稻高温热害呈增长趋势,20世纪90年代为发生低谷期,21世纪10年代为高发期;（2）高温热害发生次数在2009年发生增多突变,除重度高温热害外,轻、中度高温热害次数变化均有突变发生;（3）高温热害发生频次存在18、32年左右的显著周期变化,预计2018年之后广西早稻高温热害仍处于高发期;（4）高温热害高发区位于左、右江河谷,桂中盆地和西江—浔江—郁江等流域区域,沿海地区发生频次少于内陆。以上研究结论对实现水稻丰产稳产优产具有重要的现实意义。

Temporal-spatio Variation Characteristics of Early Rice Heat Injury in Guangxi: 1958 - 2018

To master the variation characteristics of heat injury of early rice in Guangxi, and provide decision-making support for rice cultivation and damage prevention, based on the meteorological data of 89 meteorological observatories and the corresponding geographic information data in Guangxi from 1958 to 2018, we analyzed the change characteristics of the time and spatial distribution of heat injury of early rice by GIS technology, M-K abrupt change analysis and Morlet wavelet analysis. The results showed that: (1) the incidence of heat injury of early rice in Guangxi showed an increasing trend from 1958 to 2018, the 1990s was a trough, while the 2010s was a period of high incidence;(2) the occurrence of heat injury of early rice in Guangxi increased sharply in 2009, except serious heat injury, there was an abrupt change in the occurrence of both mild and moderate heat injury;(3) the occurrence frequency of heat injury had a significant periodic change of about 18 years and 32 years, it was expected that heat injury would still be in a high incidence season for early rice in Guangxi after the year of 2018; (4) heat injury areas of early rice in Guangxi were mainly distributed in the valleys of Zuojiang River and Youjiang River, Guizhong Basin and Xijiang River - Xunjiang River - Yujiang River Basin. The occurrence frequency of heat injury in coastal areas was less than that in inland areas. The conclusions above could have important practical significance for realizing high, stable and optimal yield of rice.