菏泽市雷电灾害风险区划研究

为了明确不同县区雷电灾害风险的高低、防御和减轻雷电灾害，以闪电定位资料和经济社会资料为基础，采取归一化法、层次分析法、加权综合评价法，统筹考虑致灾因子的危险性、孕灾环境的敏感性、承灾体的易损性和防灾减灾能力4个评价指标，选择9个影响因子建立雷电灾害区划模型，绘制出菏泽市雷电灾害风险区划图。结果得出：曹县和东明是致灾因子危险性高值区，两地的孕灾环境敏感性同样较高，牡丹区和定陶是承灾体易损性高的区域，防灾减灾能力的高值区在牡丹区和东明。曹县和东明是雷电灾害的高风险区，次高风险区为单县和巨野，中等风险区为定陶，次低风险区为成武和郓城，牡丹区和鄄城由于防灾减灾能力强或致灾因子危险性较低划为低风险区。

Risk Zoning of Lightning Disaster in Heze

The paper aims to clarify the scale of lightning disaster risk in different counties, and the mitigation of lightning disasters. Based on lightning location data and economic and social data, the authors adopted normalization method, analytic hierarchy process, weighted comprehensive evaluation method, took 4 evaluation indexes which were the risk of hazard factors, the sensitivity of hazard inducing environment, the vulnerability of hazard bearing body, and the ability of disaster prevention and mitigation, and chose 9 impact factors to establish lightning zoning model, and drew lightning disaster risk zoning map of Heze. The results showed that: Caoxian and Dongming were high risk value areas with hazard factors, these two areas also had a higher sensitivity of hazard inducing environment; Mudan and Dingtao were highly vulnerable areas with hazard bearing body; Mudan and Dongming had high ability of disaster prevention and mitigation; Caoxian and Dongming were high-risk areas of lighting disaster, sub-high-risk areas were Shanxian and Juye, moderate risk area was Dingtao, lower-risk areas were Chengwu and Yuncheng; Mudan and Yuncheng were classified as low-risk areas due to the high ability of disaster prevention and mitigation and lower hazard risks.