沈阳2次降水过程ANC和TRACER检验分析

随着大城市的不断发展和社会对于气象精细化要求的提高,临近预报特别是突发性灾害天气的临近预报已经成为了社会关注的重点。为了提升短临预报能力,沈阳市气象局先后引进了ANC和TRACER系统,但是由于使用时间较短,之前还没有总结出对于2个系统预报产品的订正技术。本研究通过2013年10月10日与2014年8月24日沈阳2次大雨到暴雨天气过程,总结出ANC和TRACER在短临预报中的不同,ANC的优势更侧重于局地性的强对流天气的预报,而TRACER更有利于相对大范围的、连续性的降水预报。希望研究结果能够给预报员利用ANC和TRACER制作沈阳地区精细化预报预提供订正方法和依据。

Analysis and Test of Two Precipitation Processes in Shenyang with ANC and TRACER

With the continuous development of big cities and society to improve the refinement of requirements, weather nowcasting, especially near the sudden disaster weather forecast has become the focus of social attention. In order to improve the nowcasting ability, the Shenyang Meteorological Bureau has introduced ANC and TRACER system, but due to the use of a short time, has not been summed up for correction technology of two system forecast products. This paper to the rainstorm weather process through October 10, 2013 and August 24, 2014 two times of heavy rain in Shenyang, summed up the differences of ANC and TRACER in nowcasting forecasting, the advantage of ANC is more focused on the local strong convection weather forecasting, and the continuity of TRACER is more conducive to the relatively large range precipitation forecasting. I hope this paper can provide correction methods and basis of making Shenyang area fine forecast for forecasters using ANC and TRACER.