基于小波和M-K的豫东农区近60年气温变化的多时间尺度分析

了解全球变暖背景下豫东农区气温变化规律及其演变趋势，可为农业科学发展提供必要参考依据。选取豫东地区5个气象观测站1951-2011年的气温观测资料，集成Mann—Kendall分析、一元线性回归分析、5年滑动平均分析、M0rlet小波分析等方法，分析了豫东地区气温的突变事实、变化趋势及变化周期。结果表明：豫东地区年、冬季、春季、秋季平均气温分别于1993、1969、1984和2004年发生增温突变，夏季平均气温没有突变年份；年、冬季、春季、秋季平均气温升温趋势明显，其年际倾向率分别为0．186℃／10a、0．251℃／10a、0．259℃／10a、0．221℃／10a，夏季平均气温变化趋势不明显；近60年来四李及年平均气温的震荡周期变化特征复杂，存在多重时间尺度上的嵌套结构，年平均气温普遍存在准3年、准10年和准16年震荡周期信号。豫东地区近10年增温显著，气候变暖对农业生产的影响既有利也有弊，冬春季增温一方面有利于提高冬小麦产量，同时会加剧病虫害及霜冻干旱灾害的发生。

Multi-time Scales Analysis of Temperature Variation Based on Wavelet and M-K Methods in Yudong During 1951 to 2011

The regularity of temperature variation and the trend of temperature evolution in Yudong farming areas under the background of global warming can provide the necessary reference for agricultural development. Temperature variation facts, trends and variation cycles were analyzed using methods of Mann-Kendal analysis, regression analysis, 5 years sliding average and Morlet wavelet based on five meteorological stations in Yudong. The results showed that average annual temperature, average winter temperature, average spring temperature and average fall temperature under the 99% confidence level appear increasing mutation corresponding to 1993, 1969, 1984 and 2004, respectively. The average summer temperature didn＇ t have the mutation year. Average annual temperature, average winter temperature, average spring temperature and aw：rage fall temperature had an apparent trend under the 99% confidence level, the interannual trend rates were 0.186℃/10a, 0.251℃/10a, 0.259℃/10a and 0.221℃/10a respectively. Average spring temperature trend was not obvious. The oscillating periods of seasonal and annual average temperature in the past 60 years had complex variation characters with a nested structure on multiple time scales, annual average temperature existed 3 years, 10 years and 16 years oscillation period signal. In the past 10 years, temperature increased significantly, the impact of climate warming on agricultural production have advantages and disadvantages, warming in winter and spring can improve the yield of winter wheat, and also aggravate the pest and frost drought disasters occur at the same time.