天水地区干旱过程风险评估方法研究

为研究天水地区干旱变化特征并对其进行定量评估，本文采用天水地区7个气象站1965～2012年45年的气象观测资料，依据风险评估和正态分布等相关理论，首先确定了干旱过程综合评估指数；其次分析了天水地区干旱过程的变化特征；第三利用干旱过程综合评估指数序列对天水地区干旱过程强度风险评估等级进行划分，确定了明显干旱过程重现期评估指标；最后利用等级划分指标及重现期评估指标对2013年天水明显干旱过程进行了试评估。结果表明，该方法能科学、及时、有效的对天水干旱过程风险进行量化评估，对提高防灾减灾和决策气象服务的实效性具有一定的参考价值和意义。

Risk Assessment Methods Research of Drought Process in Tianshui Rrea

In order to research the drought process variation of Tianshui Area and carry on quantitative assessment, this research is conducted based on the meteorological data of seven meteorological stations in Tianshui Area from 1965 to 2012. The authors adopted risk assessment, normal distribution and the relevanttheories, firstly determined drought process comprehensive evaluation index; then analyzed the drought process variation of Tianshui Area, and divided risk assessment levels according to the drought process comprehensive evaluation index sequence, and determined the evaluation index of drought return period; finally, evaluated drought process of Tianshui in 2013 by classification index and evaluation index of drought return period. The results showed that the research method could scientifically, timely and effectively do quantitative assessment of drought process of Tianshui. It has a certain reference value and significance to improve the effectiveness of disaster prevention and mitigation and the decision-making for meteorological services.