中国气候变化对农作物育种策略影响探究

气候变化直接影响农作物产量,根据生产实际和气候特征,因地制宜选育农作物新品种,对保障中国粮食安全具有重要的意义。本文利用1979—2014年中国粮食主产区和西北地区气象站点数据及粮食产量数据,通过进一步的统计分析,明确粮食产量与气候变化特征。结果表明：中国东北地区、黄淮海地区、长江流域地区和西北地区年平均气温增幅均值分别为0.30℃/10 a、0.37℃/10 a、0.38℃/10 a和0.48℃/10 a,与粮食产量相关性显著;年平均气温空间上从南到北、从东到西呈降低趋势;由于热量资源分布不均导致各地区年降水量变化差异显著,但与粮食产量相关性不显著。粮食作物应以优质、高产、多抗以及适宜于机械化生产为原则,采用传统育种和现代分子生物学技术相结合的育种策略,重点提高东北地区水稻品种的耐涝性和抗倒性,黄淮海和长江流域地区水稻品种的耐高温性,西北地区晚稻品种的耐低温性,以及各地区小麦和玉米品种的耐旱性。

The Impact of Climate Change on Crop Breeding Strategies in China

Climate change has a direct impact on crop yield. Breeding new crop varieties according to production practice and climate characteristics is of great significance to food security in China. In this paper, we used the data of meteorological stations and grain yield from 1979 to 2014 in China’s main grain producing areas and northwest to clarify the characteristics of grain yield and climate change through statistical analysis. The results showed that the annual mean temperature increased in northeast China, the Huang-Huai-Hai region, the Yangtze River Basin and northwest China, and the increase rate was 0.30℃/10 a, 0.37℃/10 a, 0.38℃/10 a and 0.48℃/10 a, respectively, which was significantly correlated with grain yield. The annual mean temperature decreased from south to north and east to west. Due to the uneven distribution of heat resources, the change of annual precipitation rate in different regions was significantly different, but had no significant correlation with grain yield. Therefore, grain crop breeding should be based on the principles of high quality, high yield, multiple resistance, and suitability for mechanized production, and a breeding strategy combining traditional breeding and modern molecular biology techniques should be adopted. We should focus on improving the water logging tolerance and lodging resistance of rice varieties in the northeast, the high-temperature tolerance of rice varieties in the Huang-Huai-Hai region and the Yangtze River Basin, the low-temperature tolerance of late-season rice varieties in the northwest, and the drought tolerance of wheat and maize varieties in all regions.