大连冬季设施农业气象灾害风险及趋势分析

为了分析气候变化背景下的设施农业气象灾害变化趋势，根据大连地区1971—2014年7个国家基本气象站观测资料，利用设施农业气象灾害标准分别计算了寒潮、寡照、雪灾和大风等主要设施气象灾害的发生频次，利用线性趋势法和Mann-Kendall趋势分析法分析了近44年各灾害演变趋势和空间分布特点。结果表明：1971—2014年寒潮、大风和寡照灾害均发生了显著年代际变化。其中，寒潮和大风呈显著减少趋势，其M-K趋势值分别为-2.33和-7.11。寡照灾害呈现显著增多趋势，其M-K趋势值为4.43。各灾害频次空间差异显著，寒潮灾害发生次数长海是旅顺的3倍；大风灾害呈现沿海和海岛多于内陆，西海岸多于东海岸的空间分布。寒潮和大风的减少有利于种植业结构调整，而寡照对于设施农业是一个更大的挑战。

Trend Analysis of Meteorological Disaster Risk of Facility Agriculture of Dalian in Winter

The paper aims to analyze the regional distribution and trend of main agro-meteorological disasters in facility agriculture under the background of climate change. According to the meteorological data of 7 stations in Dalian from 1971 to 2014, the climatic characteristics and frequency of cold wave, sparse sunlight, gale and snow disaster were calculated by the standards of agro-meteorological disasters, and the changing trend and spatial characteristics of the four meteorological disasters in facility agriculture in the past 44 years were analyzed with linear trend method and Mann-Kendall method. The results showed that frequency of cold wave, sparse sunlight and gale had a remarkable change from 1971 to 2014 in Dalian. Frequency of cold wave and gale had experienced an obvious reducing trend in the past 44 years, the declining trend of cold wave and gale frequency reached a significant level with M-K trend values as -2.33 and -7.11, respectively. There was a significant increasing trend of sparse sunlight in Dalian, the M-K trend value was 4.43. The four meteorological disasters in facility agriculture also had distinct regional variations. The frequency of cold wave of Changhai was 3 times of that of Lvshun in the past 44 years, the frequency of gale had the spatial characteristics as follows: the coastland and the island had more gale than inland; the area near western coastland had more gale than area near eastern coastland. As a result, the reduction of cold waves and gale in Dalian will benefit the planting structure optimization, but the increase of sparse sunlight days is a new challenge to the farmers.