ECMWF细网格对浙江沿海10 m风预报性能评估

为更好地开展浙江沿海海上大风的预报服务,本研究对2012年1月1日—2014年12月31日的ECMWF细网格10 m风场产品在浙江沿海的预报性能进行评估,并将其插值到沿海站点和观测数据进行对比分析。结果表明:冷空气影响下,浙江沿海的平均误差为负值,绝对误差分布和变化趋势与平均误差基本一致;台风影响下,24 h预报时效的平均误差为正值,随着预报时效的增加,平均误差逐渐转为负值,鱼山渔场、温台渔场及舟外渔场的绝对误差较其他区域大。另外,预报值和观测数据间的相关系数随预报时效的增加而减小,两者之间的相关系数平均值随海拔高度的增加而减小;ECMWF细网格对岱山和龙山村的预报偏大,对浪岗的预报偏小,预报偏差的离散度随预报时效增加而增大。

ECMWF Fine Mesh: Forecast Performance Evaluation of 10 m Wind in Zhejiang Coastal Area

In order to improve the service of forecasting wind in Zhejiang coastal, this paper evaluated the forecast performance of the ECMWF fine mesh 10 m wind from January 1, 2012 to December 31, 2014, and interpolated them into the coastal stations comparing with the observed data. The results show that under the influence of cold air, the mean error of Zhejiang coastal is negative, and the distribution and variation trend of the absolute error are consistent with the mean error; under the influence of typhoon, the mean error of 24 h forecast time is positive, while it gradually turns to negative with the forecast time increasing, the absolute error of Yushan fishery, Wentai fishery and Zhouwai fishery is larger than other fisheries. In addition, the correlation coefficient of the forecast value and the observed data decreases with forecast time increasing, and the mean value of the correlation coefficient decreases with the increase of altitude. the forecast value of ECMWF fine mesh model is bigger than the observed data for Daishan and Longshancun, and smaller for Langang.; the dispersion of the mean error increases with forecast time increasing.