中国农业洪涝灾害时空格局分析

【目的】为了弄清中国大陆区域水灾空间分布规律，【方法】基于1998—2017年农作物水灾面积统计数据，采用多年平均、标准差和聚类分析等方法对31个省级行政区农业水灾空间分布及动态变化规律进行研究。【结果】结果表明中国水灾在空间分布和时间分布上均表现出一定的规律性，在水灾空间分布上，水灾受灾面积较大的区域主要集中在中国东北、华东和华南区域，该区域也是中国的农业主产区，受灾面积较大的省份呈点状分布；在水灾时间分布上，水灾发生呈现出常年总体稳定、个别年份水灾异常严重的特点；最后通过地理区尺度的聚类分析，对全国进行了水灾分区。【结论】基于历史统计数据，获得了中国大陆区域水灾时空变化规律，可以为农业生产者及管理者提供参考。

Agricultural Flood Disasters in China: Spatial and Temporal Patterns Analysis

Purpose] The purpose of this article is to find the flood disaster spatial distribution law in Mainland China. Method] Based on the statistical data of the flood affected area from 1998 to 2017, the paper conducted the studies on agricultural flood disaster spatial distribution and dynamic change regularity of 31 provincial administrative regions by employing the methods of multi-year average, standard deviation and clustering analysis. Result] The result indicated that the spatial and temporal distribution of flood disaster in China showed some regularity. In aspect of flood spatial distribution, the flood affected areas were mainly in northeast, east, and south of China which were the major agricultural areas in China as well. The provinces affected severely by flood were sparsely distributed; In terms of temporal distribution, occurrence of flood disasters showed a generally stable state in regular years but unusually severe in specific years; Mainland China is zoned into sub flood regions through cluster analysis in geographic region scale finally. Conclusion] Flood disaster spatial distribution and dynamic change regularity were conducted based on historical statistical data, which can be referred by farmers and agricultural organisers.