长江源区长序列径流变化规律及其与气象要素的关系分析

基于长江源区1956-2012年水文气象资料,采用集中期和集中度、突变检验、小波变换等方法,分析了长江源区沱沱河站和直门达站年径流变化的趋势性、突变性和周期性,并从相关性和径流系数变化方面探讨了径流变化对气象要素的响应。结果表明：长江源径流年内分配的集中程度呈弱增加趋势,集中期均呈弱延后趋势。沱沱河站、直门达站1956~2012年年径流量均呈显著增加趋势。沱沱河站年径流在1997年发生突变,直门达站在1961和1967年发生突变。沱沱河站年径流存在20-28年、12年的显著周期。直门达站年径流存在8年、24-28年的显著周期。长江源径流与降水、气温呈显著正相关,与水面蒸发呈显著负相关。降水是三江源径流的主要来源,沱沱河径流组成中冰川消融量占比站较直门达站大。

Long Sequence Runoff in the Source of the Yangtze River: Variation Law and Its Relationship with Meteorological Elements

Based on the hydrometeorological data of the source of the Yangtze River(SYR) during 1956 and 2012, we used concentration period and concentration degree, linear trend test, mutation test and wavelet transform to analyze the trend of mutation and periodicity of annual runoff time series of Tuotuohe station and Zhimen station, and study the response of runoff variation to meteorological factors. The results showed that the concentration ratio of runoff in the SYR basically increase slightly,and the concentration period postponed slightly. The annual runoff presented