湖北省水资源供需平衡及其承载力

以湖北省为研究区域，运用水资源负载指数和水资源供需平衡模型，采用数理统计方法，定量计算和分析了湖北省近年来的水资源供需平衡态势以及湖北省市域尺度的水资源开发潜力；在水土平衡分析、水资源供需状况评价与水资源开发潜力评价的基础上，从资源平衡关系入手，采用水资源承载指数等指标，对2000—2012年省域与市域2个层面的水资源平衡状况进行了定量研究。结果表明：湖北省人均水资源量居全国平均水平。湖北省属于水资源利用程度较高、开发利用条件较好、水资源开发潜力较大的省区。湖北省水资源承载力有限，随着未来人口的增加以及工农业的快速发展，在现有的水资源量基础上，水资源短缺将会成为湖北省中东部城市的发展瓶颈。

Balance Between the Supply and Demand of Water Resources in Hubei Province and Its Carrying Capacity

This paper took Hubei Province as the study objective, adopted water carrying index ann balance model of supply and demand and the method of mathematical statistics, to quantitatively calculate and analyze the water resources＇ supply and demand situation and water resources potential in Hubei Province on city scale. Based on the assessment of land-water balance analysis, the supply and demand situation of water resources and water resources potential, the authors carried out the study from the perspective of resources balance relation, used water resources carrying index to quantitatively study water resources situation in Hubei Province on province and city scale from 2000 to 2012. The results showed that： the per capita water resources of Hubei Province were of the national average. Hubei Province belonged to the regions of high water resources using efficiency with good development and utilization condition and great developing potential. However, water resources carrying capacity of Hubei Province was limited, with the increase of population in the future as well as the rapid development of industry and agriculture, on the basis of the existing water resources, water shortage will become a bottleneck of east-central city of Hubei Province.