| 基于GIS的广西暴雨灾害风险实时评估技术研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 孟翠丽,匡昭敏,李莉,王政锋,何立,黄伟圣.基于GIS的广西暴雨灾害风险实时评估技术研究[J].中国农学通报,2013,29(26):184-189. |
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| 作者姓名： | 孟翠丽 匡昭敏 李莉 王政锋 何立 黄伟圣 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]广西壮族自治区气象减灾研究所／国家气象卫星中心遥感应用试验基地,南宁530022 [2]桂林理工大学信息科学与工程学院,广西桂林541004 [3]广西田东县气象局,广西田东531500 |
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| 基金项目： | “十二五”国家科技支撑计划项目“洪涝灾害监测预警与防控与应急关键技术研究与应用”（2012BAD20B02）; “十二五”国家科技计划项目“重大农业气象灾害预测预警关键技术研究”（2011BAD32B02）; 广西科学研究与技术开发计划项目“北部湾经济区地质、气象、海洋灾害防治技术研究”（桂科攻10123009-4）; 广西自然科学基金“基于FY2的广西夏季暴雨MCS时空分布特征研究”（2012GXNSFBA053133） |
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| 摘 要： | 为了科学应对广西暴雨灾害频发、影响日趋严重这一问题,选用广西自动站实时降雨量数据、历年暴雨灾情数据、广西社会经济数据及基础地理数据,采用主成分分析法、层次分析法等方法,结合GIS技术,研究了暴雨灾害危险度实时评估的技术方法,并基于暴雨灾害实时危险度、孕灾环境脆弱度、承灾体易损度和抗灾力等4个因子,构建了广西农业暴雨灾害风险度实时评估模型,选择2011年的一次暴雨过程对模型进行验证,结果表明：评估结果与实际灾情较为吻合,模型实践检验效果较好。
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| 关 键 词： | 暴雨 风险 实时评估 GIS 农业 |
| 收稿时间： | 2013/1/18 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2013/3/11 0:00:00 |
GIS-based Research on the Real-time Risk Assessment of Storm in Guangxi |
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| Meng Cuili,Kuang Zhaomin,Li Li,Wang Zhengfeng,He Li,Huang Weisheng.GIS-based Research on the Real-time Risk Assessment of Storm in Guangxi[J].Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,2013,29(26):184-189. |
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| Authors: | Meng Cuili Kuang Zhaomin Li Li Wang Zhengfeng He Li Huang Weisheng |
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| Institution: | 1 Guangxi Institute of Meteorological Disaster Mitigation/Remote Sensing Application Test Base, National Satellite Meteorological Center, Nanning 530022; 2Guilin University of Technology, Guilin Guangxi 541004; 3Tiandong County Meteorological Bureau, Tiandong Guangxi 531500) |
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| Abstract: | For scientifically solving the problem that the serious influence caused by frequently happening storm disaster in Guangxi, based on the real time rainfall data from automatic weather station in Guangxi, the historical storm disastrous data, the socio-economic data and basic geographical data of Guangxi, by using principal component analysis method and analysis hierarchy process （AHP） and GIS technology, this paper has studied the method of the real-time risk assessment of storm disaster, real-time storm hazard risk evaluation model, circumstance sensitivity model, storm hazard vulnerability model, and resistance capacity model. As a result, the real-time risk evaluation of agricultural storm in Guangxi was constructed by comprehensive utilizing the four models, which was verified an effective model by the coincidence of the evaluation result and the actual disaster of one time storm process in 2011. |
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| Keywords: | storm risk real time evaluation GIS agriculture |
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