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济南市耕地资源数量变化及其对粮食安全的影响
引用本文:姚慧敏,张凤荣,张锡金,朱振林,隋学艳.济南市耕地资源数量变化及其对粮食安全的影响[J].中国农学通报,2007,23(8):448-448.
作者姓名:姚慧敏  张凤荣  张锡金  朱振林  隋学艳
作者单位:1. 山东省农业可持续发展研究所,济南,250100
2. 中国农业大学土地资源与管理系,北京,100094
基金项目:山东省农业科学院青年基金
摘    要:耕地是农业生产的基础,是维护粮食安全的重要保障。笔者依据济南市统计数据重点分析了济南市耕地数量变化及其对粮食生产的影响,结果表明:(1)1978—2004年,耕地总面积和人均耕地面积持续减少,至2004年人均耕地面积减少为0.055hm2。(2)1978—1999年粮食总产量总体以增长为主,1999年粮食总产达到历史最高水平;2000年以后,粮食总产量大幅度下降。(3)耕地数量变化对粮食生产具有持久的约束作用。1979—1982年耕地面积与粮食总产量之间的相关性较强,1983年以后二者之间的相关性逐渐变小,表明耕地面积变化对粮食总产的约束作用弱化。但是,受边际报酬递减规律制约,粮食总产的增加不可能完全依靠提高粮食单产来实现,保持一定数量的耕地面积是保障粮食安全的先决条件。

关 键 词:耕地数量  粮食安全  影响  济南
修稿时间:2007-06-052007-06-21

Cultivated Land Quantity Change and Its Impacts on Food Security in Tsinan
Yao Huimin,Zhang Fengrong,Zhang Xijin,Zhu Zhenlin,Sui Xueyan.Cultivated Land Quantity Change and Its Impacts on Food Security in Tsinan[J].Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,2007,23(8):448-448.
Authors:Yao Huimin  Zhang Fengrong  Zhang Xijin  Zhu Zhenlin  Sui Xueyan
Institution:1.Shandong institute of agriculture sustainable development, Tsinan 250100; 2Department of land resources management, China agricultural university, Beijing 100094
Abstract:Cultivated land is the base of agriculture production, and is an important factor to ensure food security. Through analyzing cultivated land quantity change and its impacts on grain production, the authors identify that: (1) The total area of cultivated land and the per capita area of cultivated land have decreased continuously from 1978 to 2004, the per capita area of cultivated land decreased to 0.055 hm2 in 2004. (2) The total grain yield took on increasing trend from 1978 to 1999, and it came to maximal level in 1999. Since 2000 the total grain yield decreased a lot. (3) Cultivated land quantity change influenced the total grain yield at all times. Cultivated land quantity change had better correlation to the total grain yield from 1979 to 1982. Since 1983 cultivated land quantity change had lesser correlation to the total grain yield, it indicated that cultivated land quantity change had lesser impacts on the total grain yield. But, due to the restriction of marginal utility descending law, the increase of the total grain yield impossibly absolutely depends on the increase of grain yield of unit area, and keeping the quantity balance of cultivated land is the precondition of ensuring food security.
Keywords:Cultivated land quantity  Food security  Impact  Tsinan
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