海南岛万泉河流域暴雨洪涝灾害风险区划研究

应用灾害风险形成的理论和方法，通过统计万泉河流域基本气象站1961—2011年的降水资料，实现了对自动站降水数据的估测及历史数据的延长，应用趋势面残差法获取了致灾因子危险性的空间分布，并选取了适合评价小流域暴雨洪涝灾害敏感性、易损性和防灾减灾能力的空间指标，对流域的灾害风险进行了评价。结果表明，万泉河流域暴雨洪涝灾害的危险性分布为西部高于东部，东部的大部分地区处于中等以上风险区，西部则多处于次低以下风险区。东部地区以嘉积县为中心的部分区域的风险为最高，北部岭口镇、翰林镇和大路镇也处于风险高值区。

Research on Risk Regionalization about Storm and Flood Disaster of Wanquan River in Hainan Island

Precipitation estimation of automatic meteorological stations was achieved and historical data were extended by using theory and method of disaster risk formation and analyzing the precipitation data of basic meteorological stations from 1961 to 2011 in Wanquan River, and spatial distribution of hazard was obtained with trend surface and residual method, and the disaster risk was regionalized by selecting spatial indexes which were appropriate for evaluating sensitivity, vulnerability and ability of disaster prevention and reduction with storm and flood disaster in small watershed. The results indicated that western hazard was higher than east, and most of areas in eastern Wanquan River were located regions with risk that was above the average. On the contrary, the risk of west regions was lower than the east. The risk of some areas which center on Jiaji County was highest, and so do the towns of Lingkou, Hanlin and Dalu in the north of watershed.