潍坊市冬小麦生育期气候因子变化特征及其影响分析

为了研究气候变化对冬小麦生产的影响,利用潍坊市1981—2010年连续30年冬小麦生育期观测资料及其生育期的气温、降水量、日照等资料,采用气候变化倾向率、三次多项式函数、线性回归等方法,分析潍坊市冬小麦生育期的主要气候因子变化特征及其对冬小麦影响,以期对冬小麦种植提供依据。结果表明,潍坊市冬小麦生育期平均气温年际变化呈上升趋势,气候倾向率为0.24℃/10年,降水量年际变化呈减少趋势,气候倾向率为-0.49 mm/10年,日照时数年际变化明显减少,平均每10年减少50.18 h;冬小麦全生育期显著缩短,每年缩短0.426天,苗期、返青期和灌浆成熟期缩短,越冬期、拔节孕穗期延长;冬小麦的气候产量呈下降趋势,气候产量与气温呈负相关关系,而与降水量和日照时数呈正相关关系。

Character of Climate Change During Winter Wheat Growth Period and Its Effect in Weifang City

In order to study the effects of climate change on winter wheat production,main climate change and its effects during the growth period of winter wheat in Weifang were analyzed,by using the methods of climate change trend rate,cubic polynomial function and linear regression with observational data of growth stages of winter wheat in Weifang in 1981-2010 for 30 years and temperature,precipitation,sunshine hours during the growth stage,to provide the basis on winter wheat planting. The results showed that,average temperature interannual variation during growth stages of winter wheat in Weifang was on the rise,with climate trend rate of0.24℃ per 10 years; precipitation interannual variability was on the decline,with climate trend rate of-0.49 mm per 10 years; the sunshine hours interannual variability significantly reduced,on average,every10 years to reduce 50.18 h. The whole growth period of winter wheat significantly shortened,by 0.426 days a year. The seedling,turning-green and grain filling stage shortened,and the overwintering period,jointing and booting stage extended. Climate yield of winter wheat was on the decline,relationship between climate yield and temperature was negative,and relationship between climate yield and precipitation,sunshine hours were positive.