基于粮食安全的河南省耕地压力动态分析及预测

为了明确阐述河南省的耕地压力状况和粮食供给情况,依据统计数据,分析了1978—2012年河南省耕地、人口、粮食产量等的动态变化,计算了耕地压力指数和土地资源承载力指数,最后应用灰色马尔科夫模型对2013—2022年的耕地压力指数进行了预测。结果表明:1978年以来,耕地总量和人均耕地面积不断减少,但由于耕地生产率的提高,粮食总产量和人均粮食产量却逐渐增加,从而耕地压力指数和土地资源承载力指数呈波浪式递减趋势。通过预测,2013—2022年河南省的耕地压力指数持续缓慢减小。可见,农业科技水平以及复种指数的不断提高能够减轻耕地压力,保障区域粮食安全。

Dynamic Analysis and Prediction of Cultivated Land Pressure in Henan Province Based on Food Security

To elaborate the cultivated land pressure and food supply situation, based on statistical data, the authors analyzed dynamic changes of cropland, population and grain yield from 1978 to 2012 in Henan Province, cultivated land pressure index and land source carrying capacity index were calculated, the cultivated land pressure index of 2013 to 2022 was predicted by grey Markov model. The results showed that since 1978, although total cultivated land area and per capita cultivated land area decreased, total grain yield and per capita yield steadily increased due to the increase of cultivated land productivity, thus cultivated land pressure index and land source carrying capacity index showed wave declining trends. The predicting results showed that cultivated land pressure index would continue to decline slowly from 2013 to 2022. In conclusion, the increase of agricultural technology level and the multiple cropping index could alleviate cultivated land pressure and ensure regional food security.